MANILA, Philippines — The U.S. and South Korean governments will hold high-level security talks this week, with officials expected to discuss several issues that have strained ties between the two countries, including a possible South Korean deployment to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Ministry of National Defense said Monday that the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue will cover wartime operational control transition, the countries’ joint defense posture and shipbuilding cooperation.
Experts believe the dialogue will also cover the deployment of a South Korean contingency to the Middle East, the prospect of which which has triggered demonstrations in Seoul.
The talks come as tensions between Seoul and Washington escalate over security and trade amid a heated domestic debate in South Korea over troops serving outside the peninsula.
According to local media reports, the government is considering deploying a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, a naval logistics support vessel and about 150 personnel.
The government has reiterated that no decision has been made, and any troop deployment would require final approval from the National Assembly, South Korea’s parliament.
Last week, the Foreign Ministry sent an inspection team to the United Arab Emirates to assess the situation. Findings are expected to be released Thursday.
Some form of military dispatch is highly likely at this point, according to Ju Hyung Kim, president of the Security Management Institute, a Seoul-based defense policy think tank affiliated with the National Assembly.
While support assets would not change the military balance with Iran, Kim said the move shows that “the United States is capable of mobilizing allied support beyond its traditional partners in Europe and the Middle East.”
South Korea, on one hand, had little wiggle room to deny a military contingent even as Washington’s growing demands leave officials increasingly frustrated.
Washington has pressed Seoul to spend more on defense, pay more for U.S. troops on the peninsula, and, last month, downscaled a joint training exercise without advance notice.
“Seoul is in a difficult position because it has limited room to reject a U.S. request outright at a time when several sensitive alliance issues are already under discussion,” Kim told Defense News.
A deployment to the Middle East could help alleviate some U.S. concerns, Kim said, and it might also ease Washington’s wariness over the timing of wartime operational transfer (Opcon), which the Lee Jae Myung government hopes to accomplish as early as 2027.
Seoul could use the Iran deployment to show that pushing ahead with the Opcon transition does not make South Korea less committed to the alliance, Kim said. On one hand, while it could portray Seoul as a more active U.S. ally, it could also reduce Seoul’s pragmatic relations in the Middle East.
Military officials have been discussing a deployment that could parallel the Zaytun Division contingent, which was sent out to carry out humanitarian, peacekeeping and medical missions in 2003 to support U.S. military campaigns during the Iraq War.
In the end, the military dispatch may be limited to maritime surveillance, logistics, escort, intelligence or other support missions rather than troop deployment, but the actual size, role, and location will be difficult to determine, Kim said.
U.S. and South Korean officials are also expected to discuss concerns relating to the Opcon transition. Washington has opted for a “conditions-based” system for the transfer and asked South Korea to meet significant command, air defense and strike capabilities first.
American military officials have estimated the transition to begin in 2029, later than Lee’s 2027-2030 timeline target.
“Washington has reasons to be cautious about moving too quickly, particularly as North Korea continues to expand its nuclear capabilities, incorporates lessons from the war in Ukraine … and as concerns over a potential Taiwan contingency continue to grow,” Kim said.
The South has flagged the North as a primary security focus and has held back commitments relating to Taiwan.
In recent years, the North has deepened military ties with Russia, deploying troops and supplying weapons to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine while receiving substantial economic and trade support from China.
“North Korean capabilities are advancing rapidly — their nuclear capabilities, their missile capabilities,” Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Defense News at the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum last week.
This year alone, Pyongyang has launched eight ballistic missiles and added new warships, cruise missiles and drones. Experts worry that North Korea’s Ukraine experience might make them capable of applying sophisticated drone tactics on the peninsula.
Cha said it is difficult to predict how the U.S.-South Korea relationship will evolve after recent frictions, but he said it might lead to an unexpected result: America’s pressures against Seoul might compel Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table.
North Korea has declined to revive peace talks with Seoul and downplayed Washington’s calls for a meeting.
The United States has “very few tools to disrupt” North Korea and Russia’s relationship, Cha said, but an interaction between President Trump and Kim Jong Un could be a good way “to distract the North Koreans from what they’re doing with the Russians.”
“President Trump has made very clear his desire to resume summit diplomacy. So I think that there is a pretty good chance that these two leaders will meet at some point,” Cha said.